The
Official Yankees Website has a poll up. Ignore the grammar, please: "How should the first five spots of the Yankee lineup look like?" You have the following four choices:
1. Lofton, Jeter, A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield
2. Jeter, Matsui, A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield
3. Lofton, Matsui, Jeter, A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield (6? eh?)
4. Jeter, Lofton, Giambi, A-Rod, Posada
"None of the above" is not an option.
Let's take these in the order that each player is mentioned.
Kenny Lofton
Baseball Reference /
BigLeaguers.com lifetime splits
Poll sez: He could bat leadoff, second, 6-9 or be benched.
Known: Kenny Lofton is not the worst available leadoff option. He gets on base at an acceptable rate against right-handed pitchers, although lefties have had success against him recently. He still has some speed, and can probably still dunk a basketball.
Unknown: How is he going to handle the transition back to the American League? Will he play against left-handed starting pitchers?
Surprise in the stats: I was shocked to discover that Lofton has hit double-figures in home runs seven times in his twelve full seasons in the majors. He's done it every hear since 2000, with a high of 15.
The Roundup: I see Lofton as
maybe the second best option to lead off against right-handed pitchers. He shouldn't even be in the lineup against lefties. You might as well live with Bernie's defense in CF on those days, shift Giambi to DH and take the defensive (and offensive, when compared to Lofton) upgrade by starting Travis Lee. When a left-hander is on the mound, save Lofton as a pinch-hitter for the second baseman and/or defensive replacement. When he does play, there's no real reason to bat him second. I'd bat him eighth.
Derek Jeter **Alert! We're ignoring defense today!**
Baseball Reference /
BigLeaguers.com lifetime splits
Poll sez: He could bat first, second or third.
Known: Derek Jeter could bat first, second or third for any team in baseball. He is an offensive force. He gets on base at an excellent rate vs. both lefties and righties. He is consistent offensively within the season - he is not streaky.
Unknown: Nothing much. If anything, it is wondered (mostly by hyper sportswriters) how he will react to having Rodriguez around.
Surprise in the stats: There is no discernible difference in Jeter's home/road statistics. This may be because he goes the other way so often that Yankee Stadium doesn't hurt him.
The Roundup: Derek Jeter would lead off every day if it were my team. As noted above, the handedness of the pitcher doesn't seem to matter at all when he's at the plate. He doesn't have highs or lows - you know exactly what you're getting. He's a patient hitter - moreso when leading off than other times. By conventional wisdom, he is the picture of a perfect number two hitter for these same reasons plus his ability to go to the opposite field, but I'd lead him off anyhow. I couldn't fathom batting him third in this lineup, which would cost Rodriguez, Giambi, Sheffield and Posada at bats as the season wore on, but it's not like he'd suck if he batted in that spot.
Alex Rodriguez
Baseball Reference /
BigLeaguers.com lifetime splits
Poll sez: He could bat third or fourth.
Known: He's the best hitting shortstop in baseball. He's the best player not named Bonds. He makes a whole lot of money. His agent is a sleazebag.
Unknown: How will he react to playing in New York? How will he handle third base? Will he be able to deal with the press-inspired "feud" between himself and Jeter? Will the fans and sportswriters understand when his overall offensive numbers take their likely dip in his new park? (Answer to that last one: No.)
Surprise in the stats: Rodriguez seems to have a rather predictable tiring pattern, at least since he moved to Texas. He has tended to start off hot, then wear down gradually until the all-star break, then mash again, then tire again. The trend is quite obvious in his career numbers, but I wonder how much his few years in the Texas heat influence that. New York is much more temperate than Arlington, but the Kingdome was, well, a
dome.
The Roundup: He'll be fine. Rodriguez has always handled the press well, so even though the New York press is at a whole other (boorish) level, I think he (and Jeter) will deal with it without much trouble. It wouldn't shock me to see him get off to a slow-ish start in New York (a la Giambi), but I think he'll be fine in the end (a la Giambi). Believe it or not, I'd bat him fifth. (See Sheffield, Gary.)
Jason Giambi
Baseball Reference /
BigLeaguers.com lifetime splits
Poll sez: He could bat third, fourth or fifth.
Known: Jason Giambi is a devastating offensive player. In most years of their careers, he's been more valuable on offense than Alex Rodriguez. He had knee surgery in the offseason.
Unknown: How's his recovery going? How often will he be able to play the field?
Surprise in the stats: Giambi has the opposite tendency of Rodriguez. Over his career, he's improved from the start of the season to the all-star break, then repeated the process until the end of the season.
The Roundup: The notion that he should bat fifth is sheer lunacy. Even batting .250 last year, his OBP was .412 - best on the Yankees (he edged out Posada by .007). You could lead him off and I wouldn't scream bloody murder. Rodriguez isn't going to be stealing anyway, so I'd bat him third.
Gary Sheffield:
Baseball Reference /
BigLeaguers.com lifetime splits
Poll sez: He could bat fifth or 6-9. (Sixth out of the top five?)
Known: The man can
hit. His batting average hasn't been below .300 since 1997 (when he had a .424 OBP), and he hasn't slugged under .500 since then either.
Unknown: Sheffield's another guy who's changing leagues, except he hasn't played on the junior circuit since 1991. How's he going to do now that he has to throw out about two-thirds of his "book?"
Surprise in the stats: Despite playing in serious pitchers' parks, he's hit better at home than on the road. This bodes well, as Yankee Stadium is essentially neutral.
The Roundup: Taking 2003 numbers, Sheffield would have led the Yankees in both OBP and SLG. Discount some for league change and aging. Add some for a better home field. He's an MVP candidate. By virtue of his consistent OBP advantage over Rodriguez, he bats fourth for me.
Hideki Matsui?!?
Baseball Reference /
BigLeaguers.com lifetime splits
Poll sez: He could bat second or 6-9
Known: He was mostly above-average offensively last year, hitting a bunch (42) of doubles. He was second in the American League (and tied for third overall) in GIDP in 2003.
Unknown: Has he learned the pitchers, or have the pitchers learned him? Will he be more comfortable this year, now that he's played a full major league season?
Surprise in the stats: None. He was a complete newbie to MLB last year. Maybe the double plays?
The Roundup: It is absolute insanity, completely unsupportable, to assert that Matsui should bat in the top five or six spots for the Yankees this year. The #2 spot is the worst,
worst place you could ever put him. It's noted above, but deserves repeating:
Hideki Matsui grounded into the second most double plays of any player in the American League last year. How do you like this scenario: Leadoff hitter walks, double play. I don't like it at all, and batting him second would ensure that it would be a regular occurrence.. I'd bat him seventh, eighth if Travis Lee is playing and hitting the snot out of the ball, which, granted, is fairly unlikely.
Jorge Posada
Baseball Reference /
BigLeaguers.com lifetime splits
Poll sez: He could bat fifth, or 6-9.
Known: Jorge Posada is the best or second best hitting catcher in the major leagues, depending entirely on Piazza's health.
Unknown: There is nothing about Posada's offense that anyone who's paying attention doesn't already know.
Surprise in the stats: Posada's first 400+ at-bat season was in 2000, when he was 28. If that's not absolutely shocking to you, please post in our comments. You're paying closer attention than I am.
The Roundup: He should have been batting cleanup all last year. I just cannot understand why Posada batted sixth and seventh throughout the season, when he was the Yankees' second most lethal power source. Does Torre have a prejudice against catchers? That would certainly be weird, as he was a catcher himself for about half of his career, but how else can you explain the batting order last year, or the overwhelming Girardiness of the starting lineup when Posada was entering his prime? Sure, Girardi was a wizard with the pitchers. Fine. Whatever. He bats sixth.
So, of the players available in the MLB.com poll, my top seven (out of five) looks like this:
1. Jeter
2. The Forgotten Man
3. Giambi
4. Sheffield
5. Rodriguez
6. Posada
7. Matsui
The Forgotten Man
Baseball Reference /
BigLeaguers.com lifetime splits
Poll sez: He doesn't exist.
Known: He's had an OBP of .367 or better every year since 1994. Other than last year, when knee was killing him, he's always had some serious pop in his bat. He's a switch hitter.
Unknown: How will his knee be this year, now that he's had it worked on?
Surprise in the stats: There is absolutely
no difference, over his career, in his home vs. road performance. None.
The Roundup: Of course, I'm talking about Bernie Williams. He works the count. He can drive the ball. Even with the knee problems he had above-average speed. Offensively, he performed at an all-star (borderline Hall of Fame, even) level from 1995 to 2002. According to the options in this poll, he'd bat no higher than 6th, and that's silliness. Other than Jeter, nobody is more qualified to hit in the number two (or even number one) slot in this lineup.
So what's my overall lineup? (I can hear all of you not asking. It's deafening.)
vs. RHP
1. Jeter, SS
2. The Forgotten Man, DH
3. Giambi, 1B
4. Sheffield, RF
5. Rodriguez, 3B
6. Posada, C
7. Matsui, LF
8. Lofton, CF or Whatever, 2B (If you want to be maniacal about alternating righties and lefties.)
9. Whatever, 2B or Lofton, CF
vs. LHP
1. Jeter, SS
2. The Forgotten Man, CF
3. Giambi, DH
4. Sheffield, RF
5. Rodriguez, 3B (You could move Sheff and A-Rod up, with Giambi in this spot, and I won't argue strenuously.)
6. Posada, C
7. Matsui, LF
8. Lee, 1B or Whatever, 2B (If you want to be maniacal about alternating righties and lefties.)
9. Whatever, 2B or Lee, 1B
So there you have it, my 2004 Yankees lineup. Whatever order you put 'em in, they're a serious threat to the all-time team runs record.
Call me a genius or (more likely) an idiot in our comments or via email. I'll happily explain any of my choices further.
Addendum: Results of the silly MLB.com poll, in a landslide:
1. Lofton
2. Jeter
3. A-Rod
4. Giambi
5. Sheffield